Practical use of the dynamic microsimulation model, which links together five independent models - demographic, personal income tax, economic, pension and generations accounts model - within friendly environment of the graphic interface. Developed simulation platform represents first such tool and incorporates first dynamic pension microsimulation model developed in Slovenia. With data warehouse added it represents effective simulation platform - scientific laboratory on the economic field - for scientific and professional work on many fields: domography, system of personal income tax and social security contributions, pension system, long term sustainability of public finances and the analysis of the effects of particular measures on different generations. The model was used for the preparation of the expert bases and estimation of the effects of the pension reform which came into force on 1. January 2013.
F.30 Professional assessment of the situation
COBISS.SI-ID: 263938560The analysis uses various approaches for projecting future mortality. Total mortality is decomposed by the biggest cause of death groups: 1) Diseases of the circulatory system, 2) Neoplasms, 3) External causes of morbidity and mortality and 4) Other. For each of them past rends are analysed and the information is used for projecting mortality in the future. Also different stochastic methods were used: basic Lee-Carter, Poisson log-bilinear and APC model. Based on that in the analysis the first annuity mortality tables for Slovenia are constructed – for both genders and also unisex life tables.
F.15 Development of a new information system/databases
COBISS.SI-ID: 262727936In the past several years in Slovenia we have witnessed fairly strong fertility recovery. Total fertility rate (TFR) increased from 1.20 in 2003 to 1.57 in 2010. In the analysis it is shown that TFR and the number of births are not appropriate indicators for describing fertility trends and the level of fertility. When women postpone births until they are older, the tempo effect can seriously distort actual fertility levels (quantum). In the analysis Bongaarts-Feeney method is applied to calculate adjusted TFR – on Slovenian and Croatian case. The results reveal that the adjusted TFR has never fallen below 1.56 in Slovenia and lately it is at the level about 1.8. This is important information for realistic assumptions about the future short term and long term development of the TFR in population projections. Namely, with the slowdown of fertility postponement that is expected in next several years, TFR will rapidly approach the adjusted TFR.
F.30 Professional assessment of the situation
COBISS.SI-ID: 21254886