The classical NBER leading indicators model was built solely within a linear framework. With recent developments in nonlinear time-series analysis, several authors have begun to examine the forecasting properties of nonlinear models in the field of forecasting business cycles. Empirical results are presented for forecasting the Index of Industrial Production. The results demonstrate that a superior performance can be obtained relative to the classical model.
COBISS.SI-ID: 6857756
We analyze the European transition economics and show that many time series of major indices exhibit (i) power-law correlations in their values, (ii) power-law correlations in their magnitudes and (iii) an asymmetric probability distribution. We propose a new econometric stochastic model that can generate time series with features (i), (ii) and (iii), and we show by means of numerical simulations that this model is capable of reproducing these three features found in the empirical data.
COBISS.SI-ID: 8516124
Transition economies are in their most volatile periods of transition exposed to impacts of international business cycels. Due to excessive restructuring, however, cyclical impact may come also from national economic developments. Here especially important is the role of government expenditure, who following the goal of preserving of production and empolyment, may act in a procyclical way. The authors analyze business cycles in Slovenia after independence and are defining and analyzing factors that could support cyclical developments in the national economy.
COBISS.SI-ID: 7306012
In this article we show that the strategy of quick adoption of euro, although limiting a series of exchange rate and macroeconomic risks, simultaneously requires a highly orchestrated domestic economic policy intervention. The weakest part in this integration agenda is a sustainable disinflation policy. Lowering of inflation in Slovenia to comparable euroarea level will be an evidence that gradual approach to economic transformation after 1990s, as it has been practiced in the Slovenian economy, is compatible with swift monetary integration and with the ultimate adoption of euro.
COBISS.SI-ID: 8756252
In this article we assess the theory of purchasing power parity for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia in comparison to Austria, Germany, France and Italy, by employing data from January 1992 to December 2006. Although cointegration was found among nominal exchange rates and selected consumer price indices, the theory of purchasing power parity could not be confirmed for any of the three advanced transition countries. Following the literature on price movements and macroeconomic policies in transition economies, we list some arguments that substantiate our findings.
COBISS.SI-ID: 9327132