Projects / Programmes
Development of the modelling platform for the estimation of the effects of particular measures and structural reforms
| Code |
Science |
Field |
Subfield |
| 5.02.01 |
Social sciences |
Economics |
Economy sciences |
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| S180 |
Social sciences |
Economics, econometrics, economic theory, economic systems, economic policy |
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| 5.02 |
Social Sciences |
Economics and Business |
Computable general equilibrium model, medium-term fiscal sustainability model (MtFS model), microsimulation models, structural reforms
Researchers (6)
Organisations (1)
| no. |
Code |
Research organisation |
City |
Registration number |
No. of publicationsNo. of publications |
| 1. |
0502 |
Institute for Economic Research |
Ljubljana |
5051690000 |
0 |
Abstract
Content and the aims
The proposed content of the project follows the objective, pursued by the Ministry of Finance, to obtain the appropriate tools for the assessment of the complex implications of the proposed structural reforms and specific measures of the economic policy at the level of individual branches and the aggregate level. The content should follow the medium-term framework following the fiscal rule and set up the medium-term objective (MTO), the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), the Stability Programme and the National Reform Programme. With the developed tools it would be possible to quantify measures, evaluate the effects (of the conducted or simulation measures) and thus make possible to show the impact of shocks on the achievement of the fiscal effort and the impact on macroeconomic aggregates (GDP, employment, productivity).
The content of the tender, in fact, speaks about research activities, which are infrastructural in nature and would have to cover some of the most important topics relevant not only for Slovenia but also for the other countries of the EU. These themes are related to demographic trends, the long-term sustainability of the fiscal and social system necessarily increased the mobility of labour and migration determinants of long-term economic growth - human capital, R & D activities and innovation, sustainable development and an uncertain future in the energy sector. All these activities require built, aligned and maintained databases obtained from statistical and administrative sources. For analyses on specific areas, in addition to the databases, we also need the appropriate modelling tools - from the most simple partial models to the most complex computable general equilibrium models linked with the individual partial models (microsimulation models of social transfers and taxes and the labour market). All these tools must be constructed and maintained, together with the linked databases, and adjusted for specific current needs of individual ministries or other government institutions.
We have to be aware of the fact that not only activities related to the long-term are important. We are dealing daily with different proposals for changes: in the field of social transfers, education, taxation, labour market ... The competent ministries should make assessments of the impact of the proposed changes, but often they do not have the appropriate tools - prepared estimates remain partial as they do not reflect the possible return effects and impacts on the other economic variables. At the same time, short-term forecasts of macroeconomic aggregates are also important. Following the example of other countries, we would need at least two independent expert institutions for the preparation of these predictions, of course in close connection with the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Slovenia and the Office for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development.
Suggested rough framework of research activities, which should be permanent, is thus the following one:
• Integrating statistical and administrative databases at the level of microdata and/or observation unit. It is a regular and complex work that combines the work of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, other authorized organizations for data collection and processing, government bodies and researchers with the aim of the establishment, regular maintenance, and supplementing databases for the needs of the modeling tools, and according to the specific requirements of the clients;
• Development and maintenance of a quarterly econometric model of the Slovenian economy for short-term forecasting of macroeconomic aggregates;
• Development and maintenance of a dynamic microsimulation model that combines specific modules for taxes, social benefits, health care, long-term care, education, labour market, ..., and also includes the reaction of individuals/families to the change in individual measures or reforms;
• Development and ma
Significance for science
Many years of research work of the research team on the development and use of different methodologies and model tools (mostly static and dynamic microsimulation models as well as static and dynamic computable general equilibrium models) contribute positively to the development in this field of activity in Slovenia, especially with the transfer and application of theories and technologies developed in the specific context of a small open economy.
Amendments to the basic version of computable general equilibrium model with the split of market and public parts of individual sectors, as well as a number of adjustments made to the dynamic pension model beyond the basic limitations of the models with static aging, increase the practical usefulness of these tools and thus contribute to the development in this field of activity also in an international context.
Significance for the country
With the realization of the proposed activities within the project representatives of the Ministry of Finance will acquire a new version of the modelling platform that will enable them to prepare different scenarios of structural reforms or the individual policy measures and the assessment of complex effects at the macro level or at the level of individual industries. With the possibility of preparing expert bases and the possible consequences of proposed measures, they will be able to increase further the quality of the final proposal of measures and minimize their potentially negative consequences.
Most important scientific results
Annual report
2016,
final report
Most important socioeconomically and culturally relevant results
Annual report
2018,
final report
